Nyob rau hauv lub siab ntawm kev nce nqi siab, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau nce cov paj laum los ntawm 75bp, uas yog raws li kev lag luam kev cia siab.Tam sim no, kev ua lag luam tseem txhawj xeeb tias kev lag luam nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis, thiab kev xav tau qis qis me ntsis;Peb ntseeg tias tam sim no, cov hlau tsis muaj hlau tau cuam tshuam ntau dua los ntawm qib macro.Txawm hais tias kev rov pib ua haujlwm thiab kev tsim khoom yog nyob rau hauv kev kawm, kev txhawb nqa rau kev thov tsuas yog txwv, thiab qhov qis qis yog qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev yuav khoom.Yog li ntawd, peb tseem tuav qhov kev pom ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog volatility thiab central downside.
Kev Muag Khoom: Kev lag luam hauv tsev electrolytic aluminium nce tsis tu ncua thaum lub lim tiam.Thaum Lub Rau Hli, Gansu thiab lwm qhov chaw tseem muaj qee lub peev xwm tsim tau rov pib dua.Lub domestic electrolytic aluminium ua haujlwm muaj peev xwm yog nce ntxiv.Txog rau thaum kawg ntawm Lub Rau Hli, lub peev xwm ua haujlwm yuav tsum ncav cuag 40.75 lab tons.Kev thov: thaum lub lim tiam, Shanghai rov qab los ua haujlwm nyob rau hauv txhua txoj kev, kev noj qab haus huv hauv Jiangsu, Zhejiang thiab Shanghai tau txhim kho, thiab kev noj hauv Gongyi, Zhongyuan muaj zog.Nrog rau qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom lag luam cog lus, kev xa khoom ntim ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau nce thiab cov khoom muag tau txo qis.Qhov kev xav tau hauv qab yog underpinned.Cov ntaub ntawv ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis tseem ci ntsa iab, tshaj qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam.Kev muag khoom ntawm lub zog tshiab hauv lub Tsib Hlis yog +105% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab kev muag khoom los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Tsib Hlis yog 2.003 lab, nce 111.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Cov Khoom Muag: aluminium rods thiab electrolytic aluminium txuas ntxiv mus rau lub tsev khaws khoom.Raws li lub Rau Hli 20, cov khoom muag ntawm electrolytic aluminium yog 788,000 tons, qhov txo qis ntawm 61,000 tons piv rau lub lim tiam dhau los.Wuxi thiab Foshan txuas ntxiv mus rau lub tsev khaws khoom tseem ceeb, thiab kev siv tau raug kho.Qhov chaw khaws khoom ntawm txhuas tuav yog 131,500 tons, txo qis ntawm 4,000 tons.
Ntawm tag nrho, tom qab Lub Rau Hli, kev tawm tsam macro txawv teb chaws, kev thov hauv tsev tseem nyob rau theem kho, thiab nws yuav tsum tswj hwm tus qauv tsis muaj zog thiab tsis hloov pauv.Peb cia siab tias lub sij hawm luv luv ntawm txhuas tus nqi yuav tswj tau ntau yam ntawm volatility, thiab muaj tseeb ntau dua luv luv ntawm tus nqi siab.
Post lub sij hawm: Jun-20-2022
